SINGAPORE: Sunday (Aug 18) was the perfect day for father-daughter bonding. Paetongtarn Shinawatrawowjili, the 37-year-old head of the Pheu Thai party, received royal endorsement to become Thailand’s youngest prime minister. On the same day, Thaksin Shinawatra - her father, former prime minister and the de facto power behind Pheu Thai - ended his parole with a royal pardon.
In her first press conference as prime minister, Ms Paetongtarn declared her intention to avoid the fate that had befallen three predecessors from the Shinawatra clan: Thaksin, her uncle-in-law Somchai Wongsawat, and her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra. Thaksin’s premiership had been cut short by the 2006 military coup, while the Constitutional Court played a central role in ousting Somchai and Yingluck’s governments in 2008 and 2014 respectively.
Ms Paetongtarn’s statement was a clear-eyed view - and an open admission - of the risks facing her administration from day one.
BRINGING ON THE CHARMWhether Ms Paetongtarn will survive in office until the next general election, due by 2027, is another matter altogether.
She inherits significant economic and political challenges from her short-lived predecessor, Srettha Thavisin. Economic growth remains sluggish, while Pheu Thai’s flagship economic stimulus programme - the digital wallet handout scheme - continues to be controversial in terms of its fiscal sustainability and effectiveness.
Mr Srettha’s own ouster at the hands of the Constitutional Court just last week underscores the determination of hardline conservatives to retaliate against attempts by Thaksin to more directly influence government decision-making.
Moreover, Ms Paetongtarn carries the unique baggage of being a Shinawatra family member. While few doubted that Thaksin was always in the picture when Mr Srettha was prime minister, the latter could at least fall back on his track record as a businessperson to defend the objectivity of his views.
Ms Paetongtarn, who has made no effort to disguise her readiness to seek her father’s advice in governing, will be given even less benefit of the doubt than Mr Srettha ever was.
And perhaps this is a clue to how she will seek to navigate tensions with the hardline conservative camp for the remainder of her tenure, however long or short it ends up being. No prime minister from Pheu Thai can hope to escape the long shadow of its patriarch, let alone his flesh and blood. So why try?
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Commentary: Thai politics once again in turmoil, after PM Srettha’s shock dismissal If the fledgling days of Ms Paetongtarn’s political career - she was introduced as a face of Pheu Thai only in early 2022 - are any indication, she is likely to stage a charm offensive aimed at the military and conservative elites who have spent the past two decades baying for Thaksin’s blood.
It is a fitting assignment, given her vice chairmanship of the National Soft Power Strategy Committee. Her youth and her humble persona will be key tools in her arsenal going forth, as Thaksin himself has pointed out.
THE LONG ARM OF THE LAWThe idea of a charm offensive directed at the conservative elites is hardly novel.
Ms Paetongtarn’s aunt Yingluck trod the same path more than a decade ago when she stepped out of her comfort zone as a businesswoman and into the gnarly affairs of government. Ultimately, the military chief with whom she seemingly got on so well ended up ousting her government from power and taking charge of the country for nearly a decade.
It would be simplistic to conclude that Ms Paetongtarn is fated to fall by the hand of the military.
One can argue that the conditions have changed. The Yingluck government was overthrown for trying to pass an amnesty Bill to bring Thaksin home; Thaksin is now a free man in Thailand. The yellow-shirt protestors who led mass anti-government movements in 2013 and 2014 are no longer the tempestuous force they once were.wowjili
Pheu Thai's Paetongtarn Shinawatra (centre) and Srettha Thavisin during the May 2023 general election in Thailand. (AP Photo/Wason Wanichakorn)