SINGAPORE: What a difference a month makes.
“Trump assassination attempt may have just won him the US presidential election,” proclaimed one headline just over a month ago.
As images of a bloodied Donald Trump pumping his fist in defiance flashed across screens all over the world on Jul 13 and the weeks after, emotions ran high. At the time, with opponent President Joe Biden’s mental and physical fitness being questioned, the consensus leaned heavily towards Trump winning a second term.
Even when Mr Biden dropped out of the race, the view in the region initially remained that Vice President Kamala Harris did not have a strong chance.
Now, with the Democrats showcasing a unified and reinvigorated party at their national convention last week and Ms Harris edging ahead of Trump in recent polls, businesses, investors and governments recognise a Harris victory in November might be a real possibility.
To prep for a Harris-Walz administration, many questions are being contemplated not just in Beijing, Tokyo, Singapore and elsewhere in the region, but in Washington DC, too. If elected, who would Ms Harris appoint to her national security team? How much continues from a Biden administration to a Harris administration?
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Analysis: As chances of a Trump 2.0 presidency shoot up, how ready are Southeast Asian states? A FRIENDLY TAKEOVER STILL HAS CHALLENGESMore so for the US than most governments, personnel is policy. Of course, foreign policy directionally will be set from the White House. But in such a large government involved in nearly every global issue, presidential appointees themselves have large sway in determining administration policy.
If Ms Harris wins, this would be the first time since 1988 that an administration of one party transitions to another of the same party.
By many accounts, this has not gone smoothly in the past.
Immediately after the election in November 1988, president Ronald Reagan asked for the resignations of his Cabinet members and thousands of political appointees, allowing then president-elect George HW Bush to have his own people in his administration.
Mr Thurgood Marshall Jr, an advisor to vice president Al Gore during the 2000 campaign, told me that among the best advice he received as the transition approached was from a senior Bush 41 administration veteran who advised him to physically collect resignation letters from every political appointee.
The reason? After the November 1988 election, overjoyed Reaganites assumed they would stay on. Mr Bush, however, wanted his own team.
If Ms Harris wins the election, we would have a one-term president transitioning to his vice president. Will the same rules apply in 2024 that did in 1988? Or are the circumstances significantly different here? Will a mostly new team come in? Or will many from the current administration remain in place?
As that will not be known until months after the election, foreign policy prognosticators work in an opaque situation.
SOUTHEAST ASIA VETERAN LEADING TRANSITION IS GOOD FOR REGIONThus far, we know that the Harris campaign has chosen US Ambassador to ASEAN Yohannes Abraham to lead her presidential transition planning team. Trump has named WWE co-founder and his former Small Business Association Administrator Linda McMahon and businessman Howard Lutnick to lead his.
Mr Abraham served as executive director of the Biden-Harris transition. As Mr Abraham leaves his current post in Indonesia to lead the transition team once again, he will oversee efforts to identify and vet potential political appointees and lay the groundwork for Ms Harris to build her administration should she win.
Former US Ambassador to Vietnam and President and CEO of the US-ASEAN Business Council Ted Osius praised Mr Abraham’s appointment, noting it signals America’s commitment to Southeast Asia.
“If Vice President Harris becomes president, Mr Abraham will elevate the importance of the Indo-Pacific in US foreign policy. He knows Southeast Asia and India will drive global growth for decades to come. He has the credibility and experience to ensure that the new administration acts based on a crucial reality: America’s future depends on economic, political, security, and people-to-people engagement with a dynamic Asia, with ASEAN at its centre,” Mr Osius told me.
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Commentary: Kamala Harris should distance herself from Bidenomics THE CHINA TRAJECTORY REMAINS THE SAME (MOSTLY)On China, Ms Harris will undoubtedly continue the Biden administration’s approach of “invest, align, compete” - invest in the US, align with partners and allies and compete against China to defend America’s core interests.
Former US Ambassador to APEC and former US Consul General to Hong Kong Kurt Tong noted that Ms Harris likely will follow Mr Biden's lead on economic relations with China, focusing on technology denial for strategic reasons, and occasionally using tariffs to protect key industries threatened by China’s overcapacity.
“She may be tougher than Biden on human rights, and more interested in linking climate policy to trade. The biggest difference with Trump would be on more traditional trade protectionisms, where Trump promises to raise tariffs sharply and comprehensively on Chinese products in a quixotic effort to level out US exports and imports, but Harris is likely to fear that would lead to inflation,” Mr Tong told me.
In some ways, US economic policy towards Asia will not veer greatly from Ms Harris or Trump.
Whoever wins, the US will not be returning to the world of free trade.
The Democrat’s platform reads, "For too long, America’s trade policies and approach to the global economy let middle-class jobs move offshore, hollowed out our supply chains, rewarded corporate CEOs instead of valuing workers, and failed to generate inclusive economic growth", thereby calling for "a fairer, more durable global economic order, for the benefit of the American people and for people everywhere".
The Republican platform goes further, promising to “rebalance” trade through tariffs as well as calling for the revocation of China’s permanent normal trade relations status with the US.
“Regardless of whether it’s Harris or Trump, paradoxically, the US will continue to walk away from trade while the rest of Asia embraces it,” Mr Kishore Mahbubani, former Singapore diplomat and former president of the United Nations Security Council, told me.
“Governments in the region led by the CIA - China, India and ASEAN - will continue their regional integration while the US sits on the sidelines under either Harris or Trump,” he added.
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Commentary: Five big issues that are top concerns for US voters WAY TOO SOON TO CALL THIS ELECTIONAs seen the world over, unpredictability remains the only thing predictable about elections.
Voters await the Sep 10 debate on ABC News between Ms Harris and Trump. While the outcome of that debate unlikely will move the needle given both candidates will be hyper-prepared for it, you never know what can happen - if it even happens.
On Sunday (Aug 25), Trump asked, “Why would I do the Debate against Kamala Harris on that network?”
With known unknowns (the outcome of the debate, whether the economy will rise or tank between now and the election), and unknown unknowns to come, it’s too early to declare that either candidate has this in the bag.
No more declarative headlines for the time being. One must prepare equally for both eventualities.
Steven R Okun is CEO of Singapore-headquartered APAC Advisors and Senior Adviser to geostrategic consultancy McLarty Associates. A veteran of multiple US presidential campaignsmb8, he served in the Clinton administration as Deputy General Counsel at the US Department of Transportation.